Rainfall variability and internal migration: the importance of agriculture linkage and gender inequality

Résumé

This paper investigates the extent to which exposure to climate volatility can in-fluence individual migration decisions in Vietnam, based on the historical rainfall data from 70 weather stations in Vietnam and the Vietnam Access to Resources House-hold Survey. Utilizing the exogenous variation in the rainfall deviation from the local norms within an individual fixed-effects framework, we uncover the negative associa-tion between rainfall and the probability of individual migration. Individual migration probability drops by 7.5 percentage points when the amount of rainfall relative to the long-run local average doubles. This reduction could potentially be driven by individ-uals who work in the agricultural sector and are less likely to migrate as more rainfall could increase their agricultural incomes. Furthermore, our heterogeneity analyses sug-gest that rainfall shocks could perpetuate gender inequality in Vietnam since women cannot cope with climatic shocks through migration. Policy-makers could shift their focus on flood control and water management in affected areas, where people’s liveli-hoods depend on agriculture, to efficiently address issues related to climate-induced internal migration.

Codes JEL

Référence

Tuan Anh Luong, Manh-Hung Nguyen, N.T. Khuong Truong et Kien Le, « Rainfall variability and internal migration: the importance of agriculture linkage and gender inequality », TSE Working Paper, n° 22-1373, octobre 2022.