Efficient tests for the presence of a couple of complex conjugate unit roots in real time series

Résumé

We introduce a framework which allows us to draw a clear parallel between the test for the presence of seasonal unit roots and that for unit root at frequency 0 (or ππ). It relies on the properties of the complex conjugate integrated of order one processes which are implicitly at work in the real time series. In the same framework as that of Phillips and Perron (Biometrica 75 (1988) 335), we derive tests for the presence of a pair of conjugate complex unit roots. The asymptotic distribution we obtain are formally close to those derived by these authors but expressed with complex Wiener processes. We then introduce sequences of near-integrated processes which allow us to study the local-to-unity asymptotic of the above test statistics. We state a result on the weak convergence of the partial sum of complex near-random walks which leads to complex Orstein–Uhlenbeck processes. Drawing on Elliott et al. (Econometrica 64 (1996) 813) we then study the design of point-optimal invariant test procedures and compute their envelope employing local-to-unity asymptotic approximations. This leads us to introduce new feasible and near efficient seasonal unit root tests. Their finite sample properties are investigated and compared with the different test procedures already available (J. Econometrics 44 (1991) 215; 62 (1994) 415; 85 (1998) 269) and those introduced in the first part of the paper.

Codes JEL

Référence

Stéphane Gregoir, « Efficient tests for the presence of a couple of complex conjugate unit roots in real time series », Journal of Econometrics, vol. 130, n° 1, janvier 2006, p. 45–100.