Résumé
Many important statistics in macroeconomics and finance—such as cross-sectional dispersions, risk, volatility, or uncertainty—are second moments. In this paper, we explore a mechanism by which second moments naturally and endogenously fluctuate over time as nonlinear transformations of fundamentals. Specifically, we provide general results that characterize second moments of transformed random variables when the underlying fundamentals are subject to distributional shifts that affect their means, but not their variances. We illustrate the usefulness of our results with a series of applications to (1) the cyclicality of the cross-sectional dispersions of macroeconomic variables, (2) the dispersion of MRPKs, (3) security pricing, and (4) endogenous uncertainty in Bayesian inference problems.
Mots-clés
Cross-sectional dispersion; endogenous uncertainty; monotone likelihood ratio property; nonlinear transformations; risk; second moments; volatility;
Codes JEL
- C19: Other
- D83: Search • Learning • Information and Knowledge • Communication • Belief
- E32: Business Fluctuations • Cycles
- G13: Contingent Pricing • Futures Pricing
Référence
Ludwig Straub et Robert Ulbricht, « Endogenous Second Moments: A Unified Approach to Fluctuations in Risk, Dispersion, and Uncertainty », TSE Working Paper, n° 16-664, juin 2016, révision mars 2018.
Voir aussi
Publié dans
TSE Working Paper, n° 16-664, juin 2016, révision mars 2018