Rainfall variability and internal migration: the importance of agriculture linkage and gender inequality

Résumé

This paper investigates the extent to which individual migration decisions in Vietnam can be driven by climate change, based on the historical rainfall data from 70 weather stations in Vietnam and the Vietnam Access to Resources Household Survey. Utilizing the exogenous variation in the rainfall deviation from the local norms within an individual fixed-effects framework, we uncover the negative association between rainfall and the probability of individual’s decision to migrate. We find that doubling the amount of precipitation relative to the long-run local average reduces the probability of migration by 7.5 percent. This result could potentially be driven by individuals who work in the agriculture sector and could have experienced an increase in income as high precipitation could lead to high yield. Furthermore, our heterogeneity analyses suggest rainfall shocks could perpetuate gender inequality in Vietnam as women are less likely to migrate when being affected by climate change. Policymakers could shift their focus to flood control and water management in affected areas, where people’s livelihoods depend on agriculture, to efficiently address issues related to climate-induced internal migration.

Référence

Tuan Anh Luong, Manh-Hung Nguyen, N.T. Khuong Truong et Kien Le, « Rainfall variability and internal migration: the importance of agriculture linkage and gender inequality », Economic Analysis and Policy, vol. 77, mars 2023, p. 326–336.