This article was published in the IAST magazine, 2024/2025 winter issue, exploring the power of belief, from ancient rituals to 21st-century politics. Discover the full PDF here or email us at com@tse-fr.eu for a printed copy.
Islamophobia has become a central plank of far-right movements, especially since 9/11. To investigate the religious dimension of Europe’s anti-migrant backlash, a new IAST study at the crossroads of political science and sociology examines the relationship between support for Front National (now Rassemblement National) and the presence of mosques in French neighborhoods.
Research has shown a puzzling correlation between immigration and support for the far right in Europe. At the municipal level, large immigrant populations are linked to lower support, but this link is reversed at higher administrative levels. Our study considers an infra-municipal unit – the French polling station – drawing on an original dataset of mosques and combining election results from 2007 to 2010 with fine-grained socio-economic data from the CARTELEC database.
Controlling for the presence of local immigrants, we find that far-right support around mosques conforms to a halo effect: it increases with distance from the nearest mosque, up to an apex at about 16km, before decreasing. This is consistent with research suggesting French natives with no migration background who do not frequently interact with immigrants are less favorable toward them. Mosque visibility also matters: we find that larger buildings and those with a minaret are associated with a more pronounced halo effect.
Our evidence helps to reconcile intergroup contact theory – high-quality interactions between Muslims and non-Muslims in neighborhoods with a mosque reduce the far-right vote – with competition and group threat theory — rare or fleeting interfaith contacts at intermediate distances from a mosque increase the far-right vote.
In rural environments, unlike the urban halo, we observe a steady decline in the far-right vote share as distance from the nearest mosque increases. This may be because rural residents feel more threatened by religious and ethnic diversity. Alternatively, religious buildings may appear more salient in rural areas.
FIND OUT MORE Publications by Margot and Victor are available to view on the IAST website. The Mosque Nearby is forthcoming in Comparative Political Studies.
