Application of time series techniques in relevant market delimitation

Résumé

A key issue in the analysis of mergers in antitrust is the relevant market definition. The application of time-series techniques can be useful in this process, since only prices are required for the analysis, allowing for relatively rapid estimates. The objective of this work is to make an overview of the main time-series techniques used in the delineation of the relevant markets and make a qualitative analysis of the votes and technical notes of the cases involving the discussion of the application of time series in the relevant market definition submitted to the Brazilian Antitrust Authority (CADE). In this analysis, despite of its importance, there is a clear need for a careful assessment so the model can deliver robust and believable results. In addition, the importance of the hypothetical monopolist test and simulation methodologies for merger impact analysis are hardly replaced by time series techniques accordingly to Cade’s recent decisions.