Résumé
This paper assesses SVARs as relevant tools at identifying the aggregate effects of news shocks. When the econometrician and private agents’ information sets are not aligned, the dynamic responses identified from SVARs are biased. However, the bias vanishes when news shocks account for the bulk of fluctuations in the economy. A simple correlation diagnostic test shows that under this condition, news shocks identified through long–run and short–run restrictions have a correlation close to unity.
Mots-clés
Information Flows; News shocks; Non–fundamentalness; SVARs; Identification;
Codes JEL
- C32: Time-Series Models • Dynamic Quantile Regressions • Dynamic Treatment Effect Models • Diffusion Processes
- C52: Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- E32: Business Fluctuations • Cycles
Remplacé par
Patrick Fève et Ahmat Jidoud, « News Shocks, Information Flows and SVARs », Annales d'Économie et de Statistique, Paris : Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques, vol. 113-114, juin 2014, p. 293–308.
Référence
Patrick Fève et Ahmat Jidoud, « News Shocks, Information Flows and SVARs », TSE Working Paper, n° 12-286, mars 2012.
Publié dans
TSE Working Paper, n° 12-286, mars 2012