Who Pays for Rising Health Care Prices? Evidence from Hospital Mergers

Résumé

We analyze the economic consequences of rising US health care prices. By increasing the cost of employer-sponsored health insurance, rising prices serve as a de facto payroll tax on labor. Using exposure to hospital mergers as an instrument, we estimate that a 1% increase in health care prices lowers payroll and employment at non-health-care employers by 0.4%. At the county level, a 1% increase in health care prices reduces labor income by 0.27%, increases flows into unemployment by 1%, and lowers federal income tax receipts by 0.4%. The disemployment effects of rising prices are concentrated among lower- and middle-income workers.