Abstract
Using a comprehensive dataset of bilateral migration flows and employing the Palmer index as a proxy for climate change, we demonstrate that conflict acts as an amplifying mechanism for climate-induced migration. Our results show that, as drought conditions worsen, middle- and high-income countries experiencing conflict are more inclined to have higher rates of international out-migration. In particular, we find that one standard deviation contraction in the Palmer index, indicating drier conditions, is associated with a 12% increase in out-migration flows from middle/high-income countries experiencing conflict. We also explore spatial autocorrelation and observe positive and significant origin-and destination-spatial dependence effects. Our findings contribute to understanding the intricate dynamics of climate change, conflict, and international migration while offering insights into migration patterns across countries.
Keywords
Migration flows, climate change, conflict, droughts;
JEL codes
- C31: Cross-Sectional Models • Spatial Models • Treatment Effect Models • Quantile Regressions • Social Interaction Models
- F22: International Migration
- Q34: Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
- Q54: Climate • Natural Disasters • Global Warming
Reference
Evangelina Dardati, Thibault Laurent, Paula Margaretic, and Christine Thomas-Agnan, “Climate, Conflict and International Migration”, TSE Working Paper, n. 24-1575, August 2024.
See also
Published in
TSE Working Paper, n. 24-1575, August 2024