Working paper

Belief-free Price Formation

Johannes Hörner, and Stefano Lovo

Abstract

We analyze security price formation in a dynamic setting in which long-lived dealers repeatedly compete for trading with potentially informed retail traders. For a class of market microstructure models, we characterize equilibria in which dealers’ dynamic pricing strategies are optimal no matter the private information each dealer may possess. In a generalized version of the Glosten and Milgrom model, these equilibria deliver price dynamics reminiscent of well-known stylized facts: price/trading-flow correlation, volatility clustering, price bubble and inventory/inter-dealer trading correlation.

Keywords

Financial Market Microstructure; Belief-free Equilibria; Informed Market Makers; Price Volatility;

JEL codes

  • C72: Noncooperative Games
  • C73: Stochastic and Dynamic Games • Evolutionary Games • Repeated Games
  • G1: General Financial Markets
  • G12: Asset Pricing • Trading Volume • Bond Interest Rates

Replaced by

Johannes Hörner, Stefano Lovo, and Tristan Tomala, Belief-free Price Formation, Journal of Financial Economics, vol. 127, n. 2, February 2018, pp. 342–365.

Reference

Johannes Hörner, and Stefano Lovo, Belief-free Price Formation, TSE Working Paper, n. 17-790, March 2017.

See also

Published in

TSE Working Paper, n. 17-790, March 2017