Interview with Nicolas Listl
Member of the Chief Economist’s Team at DG Energy, European Commission
Nicolas Listl is an economist with more than eight years’ experience in economic consulting and European public administration. He has been working for the European Commission’s competition and energy policy departments for the past five years. In addition to his bachelor's degree from Oxford University, Nicolas graduated from TSE with a masters in Economic Theory and Econometrics (class of 2013).
How would you compare your experience of working in the private sector (Compass Lexecon) and the public sector (European Commission)?
Surprisingly, I find working for the European Commission less hierarchical than working for a consultancy – I have a lot of responsibility for the project that I am working on as my immediate manager coordinates a team of 25-30 colleagues. However, starting my career in a consultancy was a great learning experience and I benefited immensely from on-the-job training by more experienced colleagues.
Why did you switch to the public sector?
I wanted a new challenge, to see competition cases from a “neutral” perspective. In addition, I wanted to serve this great European project from which I have gained so much, having studied, worked and lived abroad for my entire adult life.
Can you tell us more about your job as a member of the Chief Economist’s Team for DG Energy?
DG Energy’s mission is to ensure that all Europeans have access to clean, affordable and secure energy. The Chief Economist’s Team provides economic insights, modelling and analytical support, among other things. In my daily work, this can take the form of conceptual economic reasoning, empirical work using publicly available or commercially procured data, or processing modelling results produced by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre or external contractors under our guidance.
My job is varied, intellectually stimulating and has a real impact, particularly in these times. I work with a team of immensely capable and dedicated colleagues.
What steps is the European Commission taking to tackle soaring energy prices and dependence on Russian fossil fuels?
Doing justice to this question is probably beyond the scope of this interview, so let me refer you to our website. Let me just add that many colleagues in DG Energy have worked extremely long hours this year.
How optimistic are you that Europe will meet its commitments to cut emissions by 55% by 2030, and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050?
The evidence suggests that we are on track for the 2030 target. Predictions about the 2050 target are more difficult because there is so much uncertainty around technological developments and the evolution of costs. For example, look at how the cost of solar panels has come down and try to extrapolate that almost three decades into the future, let alone predicting the emergence of new technologies. But I’d like to make three more comments. First, in order to focus the discussion, it is useful to distinguish between stated ambitions and actually implemented policies. Second, energy is an area of shared competence between the EU and its member states. Third, let’s not underestimate the importance of international cooperation: the five largest national CO2-emitters (China, US, India, Russia, Japan) are all outside the EU. My fear is that cooperation on this truly global matter has broken down between “the West” and two of these countries, China and Russia.
How is Russia’s war in Ukraine likely to impact these efforts?
Without wanting to oversimplify, the war has had two major effects on EU emissions. First, higher gas prices have led to a gas-to-coal switch in power generation, increasing emissions. Second, higher gas (and also coal, oil and electricity) prices have led and are continuing to lead to greater investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy sources. Our modelling suggests that while the first effect currently dominates and we are likely to see an uptick in emissions in 2022, the second effect will dominate in the medium term, keeping us on track for the 2030 target. Of course, it will be crucial for the EU and member states to protect vulnerable consumers from the impact of these high prices, both for humanitarian reasons and to prevent losing public support for climate objectives.
What role can economists play in improving the policies implemented by EU institutions?
In general, economists play a key role in designing evidence-based policies. In the field of competition, huge progress has been made from rigid, legalistic assessment to an evaluation based on actual economic effects. Together with the US, the EU has been in the lead on this. In the field of energy, it is more difficult to quantify some of the trade-offs (e.g. financial costs vs CO2 emissions vs nuclear waste). Nonetheless, the Commission is continuously pushing for evidence-based policymaking and it is great to be a part of that effort.
How can European regulators benefit from interaction with TSE researchers?
The input of academic experts is very valuable as it certainly improves policies if insights from academia are reflected in policymaking. As one of the (if not the) leading university for economics in Europe, TSE has a particular role to play. Here at the Chief Economist’s Team of DG Energy, we are trying to foster interaction with academia through our internal (Commission) Chief Economist Talks*, research partnerships and conferences. In this spirit, it was a pleasure to speak to you.
All views expressed above are Nicolas Listl’s own and do not represent in any way the European Commission’s views on these matters.
Interview published in TSE Reflect, November 2022